Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 13

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday


	Workington		Gainsborough Trinity

	1	X	2
	3.35	3.4	1.92
	3.27	3.47	2.04
	3.48	3.59	1.99	Watch
	3.4	3.35	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.38 ↓ (3.48)	3.45 ↓ (3.59)	1.98 ↓ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Workington
27.2%

Draw
26.6%

Gainsborough Trinity
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.9%

26.1%

47%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.7%

24.9%

49.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Workington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Gainsborough Trinity has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Workington than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gainsborough Trinity than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Workington - Gainsborough Trinity Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
23', 0 - 1, Butroid L. ⚽,
29', 0 - 2, Mulhern E. F. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 🟥,
90+3', 1 - 2, Rigg S. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Workington won 0.

Workington is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Gainsborough has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Workington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Gainsborough might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Workington won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:23. (average 1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Workington won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Workington
English NPL Premier Division
18.10.25	Morpeth Town - Workington	2:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
07.10.25	Workington - United of Manchester	0:2 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
27.09.25	Ilkeston - Workington	3:2 ✺
20.09.25	Workington - Prescot Cables	1:1 ✺
16.09.25	Hebburn Town - Workington	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTL
- Gainsborough Trinity
English NPL Premier Division
18.10.25	Gainsborough Trinity - United of Manchester	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.10.25	Hartlepool United - Gainsborough Trinity	1:3 ✺
11.10.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Hartlepool United	1:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
04.10.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Shifnal Town	3:2 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
20.09.25	Hednesford Town - Gainsborough Trinity	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
15.03.25	Workington - Gainsborough Trinity	1:1
09.11.24	Gainsborough Trinity - Workington	3:0
23.03.24	Gainsborough Trinity - Workington	4:2
21.10.23	Workington - Gainsborough Trinity	2:3
13.04.19	Workington - Gainsborough Trinity	0:2
12.01.19	Gainsborough Trinity - Workington	4:1
English National League North
18.01.14	Gainsborough Trinity - Workington	3:0

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