Match Info

FA Cup - Qualification - Final

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday


	Gainsborough Trinity		Hartlepool United

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.5	1.9
	3.5	3.55	1.9
	3.35	3.91	1.96
	1.58	3.48	6.51	Watch
	3.66	3.52	1.91	Watch
	3.8	3.35	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↓ (3.86)	3.55 ↑ (3.43)	2.66 ↑ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gainsborough Trinity
32.2%

Draw
29%

Hartlepool United
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.5%

26.4%

50.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

23%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gainsborough Trinity has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gainsborough Trinity's performance.

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hartlepool United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gainsborough Trinity than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gainsborough Trinity that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Gainsborough Trinity - Hartlepool United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Butroid L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
83', 1 - 1, Ferguson N. ⚽,

Preview

Replayed if draw.

Gainsborough is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Hartlepool is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gainsborough may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Hartlepool is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gainsborough Trinity
English FA Trophy
04.10.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Shifnal Town	3:2 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
20.09.25	Hednesford Town - Gainsborough Trinity	2:0 ✺
16.09.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Whitby Town	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Rushall Olympic	2:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
10.09.25	Stocksbridge Park Steels - Gainsborough Trinity	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLWWW
- Hartlepool United
English National League
04.10.25	Hartlepool United - York City	1:2 ✺
01.10.25	Carlisle United - Hartlepool United	3:1 ✺
27.09.25	Hartlepool United - Tamworth	1:1 ✺
23.09.25	Gateshead - Hartlepool United	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Aldershot Town - Hartlepool United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLTWL

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