Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 20

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday


	Leek Town		Workington

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.75	3.95
	1.71	3.89	4.09
	1.93	3.65	3.52	Watch
	1.71	3.76	3.99
	1.71	3.75	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.93)	3.76 ↑ (3.65)	3.95 ↑ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leek Town
52.4%

Draw
24.4%

Workington
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

25.5%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

24.8%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leek Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Workington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leek Town than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Workington than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Leek Town - Workington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
13', 1 - 0, Heath C. ⚽,
31', 1 - 1, Carr T. (Own goal),
41', 1 - 2, Hopper D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
86', 2 - 2, Swinglehurst S. (Own goal),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 and 21 in the zone Relegation).

Leek is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Workington has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Workington may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Leek is a strong favorite.

We predict that Leek will win today's game, with odds of 1.74.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Leek won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Leek won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leek Town
English NPL Premier Division
22.11.25	Whitby Town - Leek Town	0:3 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Leek Town - Scarborough Athletic	1:0 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
11.11.25	Leek Town - Ashton United	2:0 ✺
01.11.25	Warrington Rylands - Leek Town	2:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
25.10.25	Leek Town - Bromsgrove Sporting	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.2 WWWLW
- Workington
English NPL Premier Division
22.11.25	Workington - Warrington Town	1:1 ✺
18.11.25	Workington - Guiseley	0:1 ✺
15.11.25	Rushall Olympic - Workington	3:3 ✺
08.11.25	Workington - Hyde United	3:2 ✺
01.11.25	Stocksbridge Park Steels - Workington	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
12.04.25	Leek Town - Workington	1:0
17.08.24	Workington - Leek Town	1:1

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