Match Info

National League North - Round 26

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Sandy Lane Stadium (Worksop)


	Worksop Town		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.7	2.45
	2.35	3.6	2.58
	2.42	3.85	2.52	Watch
	2.38	3.5	2.5
	2.39	3.85	2.55
	2.42	3.6	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.69)	3.68 ↑ (3.56)	2.52 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Worksop Town
38.6%

Draw
24.9%

Merthyr Town
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

25.5%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

25.1%

41.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Worksop Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Worksop Town than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Worksop Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Worksop Town - Merthyr Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Worksop (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Merthyr (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Worksop (votes: 1 - 50%). Merthyr (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 3)
15', 1 - 0, Waterfall L. ⚽,
19', 2 - 0, Redford V. ⚽,
22', 2 - 1, Cox C. ⚽,
31', 2 - 2, Cox C. ⚽,
45+2', 2 - 3, Smerdon N. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 3 - 3, Martin A. ⚽,
63', 3 - 4, Twamley L. ⚽,
82', Martin A. 🟥,
90', 3 - 5, Cox C. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 16 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In recent matches, Worksop has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Merthyr is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Worksop won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Outrights of English National League North for now

Merthyr Town: 1.46% Worksop: 0.91%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Merthyr Town	10	3	4	3	12:11	1	13
18	Worksop	10	4	0	6	10:16	-6	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Worksop Town
English National League North
03.01.26	Chester - Worksop Town	0:1 ✺
30.12.25	Buxton - Worksop Town	3:1 ✺
26.12.25	Worksop Town - Alfreton Town	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Southport - Worksop Town	1:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Worksop Town - Kidderminster Harriers	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WLWTL
- Merthyr Town
English National League North
03.01.26	Merthyr Town - King`s Lynn Town	1:0 ✺
30.12.25	Merthyr Town - Hereford	2:2 ✺
26.12.25	Oxford City - Merthyr Town	1:3 ✺
20.12.25	Merthyr Town - Curzon Ashton	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Fylde - Merthyr Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
06.09.25	Merthyr Town - Worksop Town	2:0

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