Match Info

National League North - Round 22

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday


	Merthyr Town		Curzon Ashton

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.9	2.7
	2.12	3.9	2.78
	2.11	4.01	2.82
	2.08	4.28	2.82	Watch
	2.05	3.9	2.7
	2.14	4.06	2.82
	2.1	4	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.91)	4.01 ↑ (3.75)	2.77 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
43.9%

Draw
22.9%

Curzon Ashton
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

23.7%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

22.4%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Curzon Ashton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Merthyr Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Curzon Ashton than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Curzon Ashton, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Merthyr Town - Curzon Ashton Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Curzon Ashton (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+2', 1 - 0, Rees R. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
78', 1 - 1, Holmes B. ⚽,
80', 2 - 1, Lucas L. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 9).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Merthyr may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Merthyr will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Merthyr won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English National League North
06.12.25	Fylde - Merthyr Town	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Buxton - Merthyr Town	1:2 ✺
25.11.25	Merthyr Town - Leamington	4:1 ✺
22.11.25	Merthyr Town - Alfreton Town	6:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Merthyr Town - Hanwell Town	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWWWL
- Curzon Ashton
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Curzon Ashton - Marine	1:2 ✺
English National League North
06.12.25	Curzon Ashton - Alfreton Town	2:1 ✺
29.11.25	Curzon Ashton - Fylde	1:3 ✺
25.11.25	Darlington - Curzon Ashton	3:3 ✺
22.11.25	Worksop Town - Curzon Ashton	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
23.08.25	Curzon Ashton - Merthyr Town	0:3

Upcoming Matches