Match Info

National League North - Round 24

Date: 30 December 2025, Tuesday


	Merthyr Town		Hereford

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.8	3.2
	1.85	3.7	3.2
	1.82	3.9	3.4
	1.84	4.32	3.41	Watch
	1.85	3.8	3.3
	1.81	3.84	3.5
	1.87	4	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.09)	3.91 ↓ (3.95)	3.32 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
49.4%

Draw
23.2%

Hereford
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

23.5%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

23%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Hereford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hereford than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Merthyr Town - Hereford Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Merthyr (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Merthyr Town will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Rees R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
58', 1 - 1, Hudson L. ⚽,
77', 2 - 1, Jarvis C. ⚽,
90+4', 2 - 2, Howkins K. ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 22 in the zone Relegation).

Merthyr is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Hereford has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Merthyr is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Merthyr won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Merthyr won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Merthyr Town - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.45%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English National League North
26.12.25	Oxford City - Merthyr Town	1:3 ✺
20.12.25	Merthyr Town - Curzon Ashton	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Fylde - Merthyr Town	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Buxton - Merthyr Town	1:2 ✺
25.11.25	Merthyr Town - Leamington	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWLWW
- Hereford FC
English National League North
26.12.25	Hereford - Kidderminster Harriers	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	Chorley - Hereford	4:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Hereford - Radcliffe	2:1 penalties ✺
English National League North
06.12.25	Peterborough Sports - Hereford	0:2 ✺
25.11.25	Chester - Hereford	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

English Southern Premier League
26.12.17	Merthyr Town - Hereford	0:0
28.08.17	Hereford - Merthyr Town	1:1

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