Match Info

Premier League - Round 16

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Kaysar Arena (Kyzylorda)

Referee: Bayimbet S. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Kaisar		Ertis Pavlodar

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.10	3.00
	2.28	3.00	2.75	Watch
	2.25	3.3	3.08
	2.09	3.23	3.35	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3
	2.19	3.30	3.29
	2.15	3.2	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.06)	3.18 ↓ (3.2)	3.09 ↓ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kaisar
41.7%

Draw
28.7%

Ertis Pavlodar
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

29%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

28.6%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kaisar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Ertis Pavlodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaisar than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

Kaisar - Ertis Pavlodar Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Kaisar will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kaisar: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Salaydin N. (C) 93. Askarov S. 25. Bukorac S. 43. Klaidher 6. Kaldybekov E. 42. Miqueias 24. Cuckic N. 12. Sovet S. 47. Konlimkos B. 96. Mukhammed A. 9. Agzambaev N.	1. Rikhard M. (G) 27. Nechaev D. 17. Opeh S. 56. Yudenkov R. (C) 66. Malikaydar S. 24. Khalmatov M. 35. Ramos L. 97. Poe J. 6. Shimamura Y. 98. Sultaniyazov Z. 10. Agimanov T.
Substitutes
10. Agostinho 29. Bagdat R. 14. Gustavo Zago 40. Kovac A. (G) 2. Redzhepov T. 3. Tolegenov A. 13. Zhaksylyk N. 17. Zhumabekov S. 23. Zhumat M.	21. Buranchiev A. 45. Iyede S. 12. Karimov R. 7. Mukhametzhanov T. 15. Nyrkov D. 9. Omatay M. 31. Rakhmetulla E. (G) 14. Raskatov V. 5. Toleuov B.
Coaches
Ferapontov A.	Eslyamov M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Sovet S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Agimanov T. ↓, Iyede S. ↑,
52', Kaldybekov E. 🟨,
55', Malikaydar S. 🟨,
62', Agzambaev N. ↓, Agostinho ↑,
63', Konlimkos B. ↓, Zhaksylyk N. ↑,
71', Mukhammed A. ↓, Bagdat R. ↑,
75', Shimamura Y. ↓, Buranchiev A. ↑,
75', Poe J. ↓, Mukhametzhanov T. ↑,
81', Kaldybekov E. ↓, Zhumabekov S. ↑,
82', Iyede S. 🟨,
82', Bukorac S. 🟨,
83', Buranchiev A. 🟨,
86', Malikaydar S. ↓, Karimov R. ↑,
86', Sultaniyazov Z. ↓, Vidic D. ↑,
90', Cuckic N. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kaisar won 4.

In recent matches, Kaisar has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ertis is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Kaisar won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:16. (average 1.2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Kaisar won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 1.3:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Ertis Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26:34	-8	26
13	Kaisar Kyzylorda	26	4	12	10	22:33	-11	24

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kaisar Kyzylorda
Kazakh Premier League
28.06.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaisar	1:2 ✺
20.06.26	Kaisar - Ulytau	0:0 ✺
14.06.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Kaisar	1:2 ✺
28.05.26	Kaisar - Yelimay Semey	2:3 ✺
23.05.26	Kairat - Kaisar	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 WTWLT
- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
28.06.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaisar	1:2 ✺
20.06.26	Zhenis - Ertis Pavlodar	0:0 ✺
14.06.26	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	2:0 ✺
27.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Ulytau	1:1 ✺
22.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Ertis Pavlodar	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
28.06.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaisar	1:2
08.03.20	Kaisar - Ertis Pavlodar	1:0
19.10.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaisar	2:1
31.05.19	Kaisar - Ertis Pavlodar	2:0
Kazakh Cup
08.05.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaisar	1:2
Kazakh Premier League
30.03.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaisar	0:1
21.10.18	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaisar	0:1

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