Match Info

Premier League - Round 19

Date: 25 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Metallurg (Zhezqazghan)


	Ulytau		Ertis Pavlodar

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.30	3.20	2.65
	2.62	3.2	2.48	Watch
	2.79	3.3	2.43
	2.55	3.19	2.62	Watch
	2.65	3.15	2.4
	2.57	3.26	2.68
	2.7	3.1	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (1.93)	3.2 ↑ (3.05)	2.53 ↓ (4.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulytau
35.2%

Draw
28.6%

Ertis Pavlodar
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

30.8%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

28.4%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulytau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ulytau's form might have worsened.

Ertis Pavlodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ertis Pavlodar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulytau than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ulytau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ertis Pavlodar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	28.6%	28.6%

Ulytau - Ertis Pavlodar Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ulytau will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Ertis will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ulytau (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nepogodov D. (G) 2. Carmona Sierra D. 28. Bugulov G. (C) 25. Bukhal G. 12. Afanasenko V. 14. Harada H. 18. Bougnone A. 8. Vachiberadze B. 22. Chernyak I. 90. Martin D. 11. Smith A.	29. Sarnavskyi B. (G) 66. Malikaydar S. 17. Opeh S. 25. Jevtic M. 12. Karimov R. 35. Ramos L. 8. Esimbekov D. 98. Sultaniyazov Z. 56. Yudenkov R. (C) 32. Falaye O. A. 97. Poe J.
Substitutes
4. Chalkin M. 17. Daniyarov B. 69. Maulenov D. 21. Nurali O. 6. Nursultanov K. 9. Serikkul R. 77. Shauymbay M. 40. Shcherbakov S. (G) 10. Taubay A. 78. Zakirov T. (G) 45. Zulfikarov B.	13. Baybosynov N. 21. Berdibek D. 45. Iyede S. 24. Khalmatov M. 26. Mbodj M. 7. Mukhametzhanov T. 15. Nyrkov D. 31. Rakhmetulla E. (G) 6. Shimamura Y. 4. Slambekov D. 5. Toleuov B.
Coaches
Mazbaev N.	Eslyamov M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
17', 0 - 1, Jevtic M. ⚽, Yudenkov R. (A),
21', Yudenkov R. 🟨,
33', Falaye O. A. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Martin D. ⚽, Smith A. (A),
45+1', 1 - 2, Poe J. ⚽, Malikaydar S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Martin D. 🟨,
60', Falaye O. A. ↓, Iyede S. ↑,
71', Chernyak I. ↓, Taubay A. ↑,
71', Vachiberadze B. ↓, Zulfikarov B. ↑,
73', Bugulov G. ↓, Chalkin M. ↑,
73', Jevtic M. ↓, Slambekov D. ↑,
73', Sultaniyazov Z. ↓, Baybosynov N. ↑,
81', Harada H. ↓, Nurali O. ↑,
85', Carmona Sierra D. ↓, Maulenov D. ↑,
87', Poe J. ↓, Mukhametzhanov T. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 6 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League).

Ulytau has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ertis has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ertis may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ulytau won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Ulytau	26	8	8	10	24:32	-8	32
11	Ertis Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26:34	-8	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ulytau
Kazakh Premier League
18.07.26	Zhenis - Ulytau	1:1 ✺
12.07.26	Ulytau - Kaisar	1:0 ✺
05.07.26	Ordabasy - Ulytau	1:0 ✺
28.06.26	Ulytau - Ordabasy	0:1 ✺
20.06.26	Kaisar - Ulytau	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TWLLT
- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
11.07.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Zhenis	0:1 ✺
05.07.26	Kaisar - Ertis Pavlodar	0:0 ✺
28.06.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaisar	1:2 ✺
20.06.26	Zhenis - Ertis Pavlodar	0:0 ✺
14.06.26	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
27.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Ulytau	1:1

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