Match Info

Premier League - Round 17

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Pavlodar)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ertis Pavlodar		Zhenis

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.37	3.20	2.60
	2.33	3.05	2.65	Watch
	2.65	3.40	2.90
	3.27	2.60	2.56	Watch
	2.60	2.65	2.85
	2.50	3.37	2.69	Watch
	2.49	3.00	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (2.82)	3.04 ↑ (3.01)	2.71 ↑ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ertis Pavlodar
35.5%

Draw
30.4%

Zhenis
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

30.8%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

30.4%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ertis Pavlodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Zhenis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zhenis than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Ertis Pavlodar - Zhenis Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Ertis will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ertis: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rikhard M. (G) 27. Nechaev D. 17. Opeh S. 25. Jevtic M. 66. Malikaydar S. 35. Ramos L. 21. Buranchiev A. (C) 97. Poe J. 6. Shimamura Y. 98. Sultaniyazov Z. 93. Vidic D.	41. Plotnikov M. (G) 4. Bystrov M. 63. Saravanja I. 5. Tevzadze Z. 3. Kpozo P. 14. Saulet A. 7. Kuat I. (C) 88. Martins G. 11. Filipovic A. 19. Adilio 93. Elder Santana
Substitutes
45. Iyede S. 12. Karimov R. 24. Khalmatov M. 7. Mukhametzhanov T. 15. Nyrkov D. 9. Omatay M. 31. Rakhmetulla E. (G) 14. Raskatov V. 99. Toleubek M. (G) 5. Toleuov B. 8. Zharynbetov S.	17. Adilov A. 72. Askarov M. 97. Besengaliyev Y. 8. Khaseyn M. 18. Madelkhan B. 9. Naumets V. 77. Shanshar N. (G) 1. Sotnik I. (G) 13. Tursynbay S.
Coaches
Zhumaskaliyev N.	Aliyev A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Jevtic M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Buranchiev A. ↓, Khalmatov M. ↑,
46', Vidic D. ↓, Zharynbetov S. ↑,
47', Saulet A. 🟨,
76', Adilio ↓, Naumets V. ↑,
77', Shimamura Y. ↓, Iyede S. ↑,
84', Poe J. ↓, Mukhametzhanov T. ↑,
87', Tevzadze Z. 🟨,
90', Sultaniyazov Z. ↓, Mbodj M. ↑,
90+5', Zharynbetov S. 🟨,
90+6', 0 - 1, Jevtic M. (Own goal),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League and 10).

Recent form of Ertis has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Zhenis has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ertis may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ertis won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Zhenis	26	8	8	10	26:32	-6	32
11	Ertis Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26:34	-8	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
05.07.26	Kaisar - Ertis Pavlodar	0:0 ✺
28.06.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaisar	1:2 ✺
20.06.26	Zhenis - Ertis Pavlodar	0:0 ✺
14.06.26	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	2:0 ✺
27.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Ulytau	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TLTLT
- FC Zhenis
Kazakh Premier League
03.07.26	Astana - Zhenis	1:0 ✺
28.06.26	Zhenis - Astana	2:2 ✺
20.06.26	Zhenis - Ertis Pavlodar	0:0 ✺
14.06.26	Ulytau - Zhenis	2:1 ✺
28.05.26	Zhenis - Kaspiy Aktau	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
20.06.26	Zhenis - Ertis Pavlodar	0:0

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