Match Info

National League - Round 6

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: VBS Community Stadium (London)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DAZN
Austria	DAZN
Bolivia	DAZN
Brazil	DAZN Brasil
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Ecuador	DAZN
France	DAZN France
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Paraguay	DAZN
Portugal	DAZN / App
Spain	DAZN Espana
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
United-kingdom	DAZN, DAZN UK
Uruguay	DAZN
Usa	DAZN USA
Venezuela	DAZN


	Sutton United		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.75	1.67
	4.1	3.75	1.63
	4.45	3.85	1.68
	4.55	4.16	1.68
	4.21	3.65	1.77	Watch
	3.3	3.3	2.05
	4.41	3.7	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.19 ↑ (3.63)	3.74 ↑ (3.47)	1.74 ↓ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sutton United
22.1%

Draw
24.8%

Carlisle United
53.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.5%

26.7%

47.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

26%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sutton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carlisle United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sutton United than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Sutton United - Carlisle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Carlisle (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carlisle (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sims J. (G) 24. Boutin N. 22. Dabre M. 26. Eccleston J. 23. Harris J. J. 10. Nadesan A. 34. Njoku B. 5. Phipps H. (C) 14. Pruti E. 16. Taylor J. 20. Wadham J.	1. Breeze G. (G) 29. Armstrong L. 2. Davies A. 18. Ellis J. 3. Harper C. 10. Linney R. 37. Macadam H. 26. Mugabi B. 4. Thomas T. (C) 16. Wearne S. 8. Whelan C.
Substitutes
21. Aziaya D. (G) 19. Crichlow K. 17. Jones A. 6. Odelusi S. 18. Ogbonna D. 8. Simper L. 7. White J.	7. Ajiboye D. 24. Grant J. 6. Hayden A. 9. Kelly G. 25. Lewis H. (G) 15. Murray S. 22. Williams J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', 🟨,
24', Wearne S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
49', 1 - 0, Pruti E. ⚽,
55', Whelan C. ↓, Kelly G. ↑,
64', Wadham J. ↓, Odelusi S. ↑,
64', Dabre M. ↓, Simper L. ↑,
69', Macadam H. ↓, Grant J. ↑,
69', Armstrong L. ↓, Ajiboye D. ↑,
78', Njoku B. ↓, Ogbonna D. ↑,
82', 2 - 0, Ogbonna D. ⚽,
90+5', 2 - 1, Kelly G. ⚽,

Preview

Sutton is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Carlisle is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Carlisle might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sutton won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Sutton won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sutton United
English National League
25.08.25	Rochdale - Sutton United	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Sutton United - Scunthorpe United	2:3 ✺
20.08.25	Forest Green Rovers - Sutton United	4:0 ✺
16.08.25	Sutton United - Solihull Moors	0:0 ✺
English National League Cup
12.08.25	Sutton United - Fulham U21	0:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL
- Carlisle United
English National League
25.08.25	Carlisle United - Braintree Town	5:0 ✺
23.08.25	Wealdstone - Carlisle United	0:1 ✺
19.08.25	Carlisle United - Solihull Moors	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Carlisle United - Boreham Wood	3:3 ✺
09.08.25	Woking - Carlisle United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
08.05.23	Sutton United - Carlisle United	1:1
03.12.22	Carlisle United - Sutton United	1:1
29.01.22	Carlisle United - Sutton United	0:2
25.09.21	Sutton United - Carlisle United	4:0

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