Match Info

BRAZIL: Gaucho - Round 8

Date: 15 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Olímpico Colosso da Lagoa (Erechim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SporTV 2


	Ypiranga		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.3	2.2	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.24
	3.24	3.1	2.33
	3.15	3.05	2.25	Watch
	3.1	3	2.25
	3.13	3.14	2.25	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↓ (4.5)	3.06 ↓ (3.4)	2.25 ↑ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ypiranga
29.3%

Draw
30%

Grêmio
40.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.6%

27.2%

52.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.5%

26.1%

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ypiranga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ypiranga's performance.

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ypiranga than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ypiranga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ypiranga - Grêmio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Edson (C) 18. Emerson Galego 11. Felipe Marques 28. Heitor 6. Heitor Roca 10. Jean Pyerre 30. Joao Paulo 16. Lucas Ramos 7. Roger 2. Vitor Marinho 3. Willian Gomes	12. Gabriel Grando (C) 16. Aravena A. 19. Arezo M. 15. Camilo 17. Dodi 53. Gustavo Martins 2. Joao Lucas 11. Monsalve M. 36. Nata 23. Pepe 44. Viery
Substitutes
5. Charles Raphael 8. Clayton 9. Cristiano 99. Danielzinho 33. Eduardo Grechi 34. Fernando Costa (G) 4. Franklin 43. Luciano 22. Rian 19. Salas De La Hoz A. D. J. 26. Valber Junior 40. Ze Carlos (G)	31. Adriel (G) 77. Andre Henrique 59. Borges N. 43. Eduardo L. 37. Gabriel Mec 57. Jeferson 55. Kaick 42. Smiley 39. Tiago Volpi (G) 46. Wesley Costa 58. Zortea Bernardo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Lucas Ramos 🟨,
24', Pepe ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
27', Monsalve M. 🟨,
28', Joao Lucas 🟥,
34', Aravena A. ↓, Eduardo L. ↑,
45+2', Heitor Roca ↓, Salas De La Hoz A. D. J. ↑,
45+2', Felipe Marques ↓, Luciano ↑,
45+6', Eduardo L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', Joao Paulo ↓, Cristiano ↑,
62', Lucas Ramos ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
63', 0 - 1, Monsalve M. ⚽,
66', Vitor Marinho 🟨,
66', Willian Gomes 🟨,
69', Vitor Marinho ↓, Rian ↑,
78', Viery 🟨,
83', Monsalve M. ↓, Kaick ↑,

Preview

Grêmio is Qualified for Gaucho (Play Offs Semi~finals)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ypiranga won 1.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Ypiranga could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Grêmio will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Ypiranga won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 8:18 (average 0.7:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Ypiranga won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5:8 (average 0.7:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ypiranga FC
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
12.02.25	Brasil de Pelotas - Ypiranga	1:2 ✺
09.02.25	Ypiranga - Guarany de Bagé	1:0 ✺
06.02.25	EC São José Porto Alegre - Ypiranga	0:0 ✺
01.02.25	Ypiranga - Monsoon	2:1 ✺
29.01.25	Ypiranga - São Luiz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWTWT
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
11.02.25	Grêmio - EC Pelotas	5:0 ✺
08.02.25	Grêmio - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
05.02.25	Juventude - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
01.02.25	Grêmio - São Luiz	5:0 ✺
29.01.25	Monsoon - Grêmio	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
14.02.24	Ypiranga - Grêmio	0:0
25.03.23	Grêmio - Ypiranga	3:1 penalties
19.03.23	Ypiranga - Grêmio	2:1
11.03.23	Ypiranga - Grêmio	0:0
02.04.22	Grêmio - Ypiranga	2:1
26.03.22	Ypiranga - Grêmio	0:1
12.03.22	Grêmio - Ypiranga	2:0

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