Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday


	Daniil Medvedev		Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
			Watch
	1.68	2.15
	1.74	2.22
	1.33	3.35	Watch
	1.73	2.12	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.77)	2.41 ↑ (2.08)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Medvedev
59.6%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Daniil Medvedev's performance.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniil Medvedev that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Medvedev will win (votes: 14 - 66.7%). Davidovich Fokina will win (votes: 7 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Medvedev: 46.5% – 86.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Davidovich Fokina (votes: 4 - 26.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Games - Medvedev (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 12 - 75%). Davidovich Fokina (votes: 4 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 18. Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 20.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Medvedev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Beijing
26.09.25	Daniil Medvedev - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
21.09.25	Yibing Wu - Daniil Medvedev	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Nishesh Basavareddy - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
24.08.25	Daniil Medvedev - Benjamin Bonzi	2:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
10.08.25	Adam Walton - Daniil Medvedev	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLWLL
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Beijing
25.09.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
27.08.25	Arthur Rinderknech - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	3:2 ✺
24.08.25	Alexander Shevchenko - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
09.08.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Joao Fonseca	Davidovich Fokina A. retired ✺
ATP Toronto
03.08.25	Andrey Rublev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Davidovich Fokina A. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLW??

Latest Head to Head

ATP Montreal
08.08.24	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1:2
ATP Dubai
29.02.24	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0
ATP Indian Wells
15.03.23	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0
ATP Rotterdam
14.02.23	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:1
ATP Madrid
05.05.21	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Daniil Medvedev	1:2

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