Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday


	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.42	2.8	Watch
	1.45	2.8	Watch
	1.43	3.01
	1.44	2.70	Watch
	1.45	2.85	Watch
	1.44	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.43)	2.82 ↓ (2.9)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
66.2%

Matteo Arnaldi
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.3%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Davidovich Fokina will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Davidovich Fokina (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Arnaldi (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 20. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 73.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Davidovich Fokina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Davidovich Fokina is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Davidovich Fokina won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Beijing
28.09.25	Daniil Medvedev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
25.09.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
27.08.25	Arthur Rinderknech - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	3:2 ✺
24.08.25	Alexander Shevchenko - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
09.08.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Joao Fonseca	Davidovich Fokina A. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLW?
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Shanghai
02.10.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
ATP Tokyo
23.09.25	Marton Fucsovics - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
22.09.25	Luca Nardi - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
19.09.25	Arthur Cazaux - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
26.08.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Francisco Cerundolo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Delray Beach
15.02.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0
ATP Dallas
06.02.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0
ATP Montreal
10.08.24	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Matteo Arnaldi	Davidovich Fokina A. retired

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