Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 October 2026, Thursday


	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina		Matteo Berrettini

	1	2
	1.62	2.30	Watch
	1.62	2.25
	1.63	2.28	Watch
	1.64	2.21	Watch
	1.64	2.30
	1.63	2.32	Watch
	1.60	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.65)	2.27 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
58.3%

Matteo Berrettini
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.1%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Matteo Berrettini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	0%	44.4%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Matteo Berrettini Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Davidovich Fokina will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Berrettini will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Davidovich Fokina: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Davidovich Fokina (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Davidovich Fokina (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Davidovich Fokina (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 28., and Berrettini is ranked ATP: 47..

Berrettini has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Berrettini could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Davidovich Fokina is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Davidovich Fokina has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 4:3 (averaging 2:1.5 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 57.11%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Chengdu
29.09.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
28.09.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1:2 ✺
27.09.26	Alexandre Muller - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
26.09.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
ATP Umag
16.07.26	Alex Molcan - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWWL
- Matteo Berrettini
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Matteo Berrettini - Mariano Navone	1:3 ✺
31.08.26	Matteo Berrettini - Stanislas Wawrinka	3:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Matteo Berrettini	2:1 ✺
14.08.26	Titouan Droguet - Matteo Berrettini	1:2 ✺
ATP Montreal
03.08.26	Matteo Berrettini - Mariano Navone	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
04.09.22	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Matteo Berrettini	2:3
ATP Monte Carlo
13.04.21	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Matteo Berrettini	2:0

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