Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Shanghai 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Alejandro Tabilo		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	1.50	2.63	Watch
	1.50	2.54
	1.56	2.43
	1.51	2.57	Watch
	1.54	2.50
	1.46	2.77	Watch
	1.50	2.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.72)	2.58 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Tabilo
63.1%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
36.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.6%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

45.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Tabilo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alejandro Tabilo's performance.

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pablo Carreno-Busta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Tabilo than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alejandro Tabilo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pablo Carreno-Busta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	0%	18.2%

Alejandro Tabilo - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tabilo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 21.5 Games - over (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Alejandro Tabilo will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tabilo is ranked ATP: 30., and Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 65..

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Tabilo could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Tabilo holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Tabilo has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:4 (averaging 1:1.3 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Alejandro Tabilo - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 54.63%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Tabilo
ATP Tokyo
02.10.26	Denis Shapovalov - Alejandro Tabilo	2:1 ✺
29.09.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
ATP Chengdu
25.09.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Adrian Mannarino	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
20.09.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Rafael Jodar	Canceled ✺
19.09.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Daniel Merida Aguilar	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWL?L
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Shanghai
08.10.26	Mariano Navone - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
ATP Beijing
02.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
29.09.26	Adrian Mannarino - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
28.09.26	Yi Zhou - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
30.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
06.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2
ATP Challenger
17.10.25	Alejandro Tabilo - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2
ATP Cup
31.12.21	Alejandro Tabilo - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2

Alejandro Tabilo - Pablo Carreno-Busta