Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 29 September 2026, Tuesday


	Adrian Mannarino		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
			Watch
	2.35	1.55
	2.35	1.56	Watch
	2.41	1.54	Watch
	2.45	1.55
	2.68	1.48	Watch
	2.65	1.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (1.98)	1.51 ↓ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Adrian Mannarino
37.9%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
62.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

52.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

54.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adrian Mannarino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Adrian Mannarino's form might have worsened.

Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pablo Carreno-Busta's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adrian Mannarino than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Adrian Mannarino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pablo Carreno-Busta, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Adrian Mannarino - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Mannarino will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Carreno Busta will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Mannarino is ranked ATP: 81., and Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 66..

Both players have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Carreno Busta could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Carreno Busta is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Mannarino has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:4 (averaging 0.7:1.3 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Adrian Mannarino - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 47.2%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adrian Mannarino
ATP Beijing
28.09.26	Miomir Kecmanovic - Adrian Mannarino	1:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
27.09.26	Adrian Mannarino - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
25.09.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Adrian Mannarino	0:2 ✺
24.09.26	Juncheng Shang - Adrian Mannarino	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
17.09.26	Adrian Mannarino - Matisse Bobichon	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WLWWL
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Beijing
28.09.26	Yi Zhou - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
30.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:1 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
23.08.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Daniel Vallejo	Carreno-Busta P. Retired ✺
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.26	Andrey Rublev - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
14.08.26	Tomas Machac - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WL?LW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Auckland
09.01.26	Adrian Mannarino - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Canceled
ATP Rotterdam
10.02.20	Adrian Mannarino - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2
ATP Barcelona
26.04.18	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Adrian Mannarino	2:1

Upcoming Matches