Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 8 October 2026, Thursday


	Mariano Navone		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.65	2.20
	1.66	2.23	Watch
	1.65	2.18	Watch
	1.66	2.2
	1.67	2.25	Watch
	1.68	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (2.08)	2.22 ↑ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mariano Navone
57.1%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

54.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

53.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mariano Navone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mariano Navone's performance.

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pablo Carreno-Busta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mariano Navone than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mariano Navone that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pablo Carreno-Busta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Mariano Navone - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Navone will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Carreno Busta will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Navone is ranked ATP: 47., and Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 65..

Both players have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Carreno Busta may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Navone has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mariano Navone
ATP Beijing
30.09.26	Alex De Minaur - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
04.09.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Mariano Navone	3:0 ✺
02.09.26	Matteo Berrettini - Mariano Navone	1:3 ✺
30.08.26	Mariano Navone - Novak Djokovic	3:2 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
25.08.26	James Duckworth - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 LLWWL
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Beijing
02.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
29.09.26	Adrian Mannarino - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
28.09.26	Yi Zhou - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
30.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:1 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
23.08.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Daniel Vallejo	Carreno-Busta P. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWWL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
28.05.24	Mariano Navone - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:1

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