Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday


	Denis Shapovalov		Alejandro Tabilo

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.67	2.18	Watch
	1.65	2.15	Watch
	1.64	2.19	Watch
	1.71	2.2
	1.68	2.22	Watch
	1.66	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.58)	2.19 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Denis Shapovalov
56.7%

Alejandro Tabilo
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.2%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

47.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Denis Shapovalov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Alejandro Tabilo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Tabilo than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Denis Shapovalov - Alejandro Tabilo Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Shapovalov will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tabilo will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Shapovalov (votes: 1 - 50%). Tabilo (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +5.5 Games - Tabilo (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Set - Tabilo (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Shapovalov (votes: 1 - 25%). Tabilo (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 46., and Tabilo is ranked ATP: 31..

Shapovalov is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Tabilo have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Shapovalov may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Shapovalov holding a narrow advantage.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Denis Shapovalov - the odds 1.58 are the expected chance of winning is 59.17%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Alejandro Tabilo - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.83%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Tokyo
01.10.26	Denis Shapovalov - Sho Shimabukuro	2:0 ✺
ATP Chengdu
28.09.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Denis Shapovalov	2:1 ✺
27.09.26	Adrian Mannarino - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
25.09.26	Vit Kopriva - Denis Shapovalov	0:2 ✺
24.09.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Denis Shapovalov	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWWW
- Alejandro Tabilo
ATP Tokyo
29.09.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
ATP Chengdu
25.09.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Adrian Mannarino	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
20.09.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Rafael Jodar	Canceled ✺
19.09.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Daniel Merida Aguilar	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
05.09.26	Alexander Zverev - Alejandro Tabilo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WL?LL

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