Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hangzhou, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 September 2025, Wednesday


	Aleksandar Kovacevic		Luca Nardi

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.75	2.05
	1.74	2.09	Watch
	1.75	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.58)	2.04 ↓ (2.39)

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aleksandar Kovacevic
53.7%

Luca Nardi
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.3%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aleksandar Kovacevic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aleksandar Kovacevic's form might have worsened.

Luca Nardi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Luca Nardi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aleksandar Kovacevic than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aleksandar Kovacevic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Nardi than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Luca Nardi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Aleksandar Kovacevic - Luca Nardi Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Kovacevic will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Nardi will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nardi (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Kovacevic is ranked ATP: 69. Nardi is ranked ATP: 85.

Recent form of Kovacevic has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Nardi has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Kovacevic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Aleksandar Kovacevic - the odds 1.58 are the expected chance of winning is 60.28%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aleksandar Kovacevic
ATP US Open
25.08.25	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	0:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
19.08.25	Miomir Kecmanovic - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:0 ✺
18.08.25	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Filip Misolic	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
08.08.25	Hamad Medjedovic - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:0 ✺
ATP Toronto
28.07.25	Tristan Boyer - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLWLL
- Luca Nardi
ATP US Open
24.08.25	Luca Nardi - Tomas Machac	0:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
13.08.25	Luca Nardi - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
12.08.25	Jakub Mensik - Luca Nardi	Mensik J. retired ✺
10.08.25	Luca Nardi - Denis Shapovalov	2:1 ✺
08.08.25	Luca Nardi - Thiago Augustin Tirante	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 LL?WW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
29.04.25	Luca Nardi - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:0

Aleksandar Kovacevic - Luca Nardi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide