Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY) 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Belgium	21:00	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	HBO Max
Bulgaria	22:00	HBO Max
Croatia	21:00	HBO Max
Czech Republic	21:00	HBO Max
Denmark	21:00	HBO Max
Finland	22:00	HBO Max
France	21:00	HBO Max
Hungary	21:00	HBO Max
Italy	21:00	Super Tennis
Moldova	22:00	HBO Max
Montenegro	21:00	HBO Max
Netherlands	21:00	HBO Max
North Macedonia	21:00	HBO Max
Norway	21:00	HBO Max
Poland	21:00	HBO Max
Romania	22:00	HBO Max
Serbia	21:00	HBO Max
Slovenia	21:00	HBO Max
Spain	21:00	HBO Max
Sweden	21:00	HBO Max


	Luca Nardi		Tomas Machac

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.7	1.45
	2.79	1.42	Watch
	2.81	1.4
	2.85	1.41	Watch
	2.75	1.44
	3.12	1.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.63)	1.42 ↓ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Nardi
33.2%

Tomas Machac
66.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.3%

63.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Nardi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Tomas Machac has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.2%	0%	93.7%

Luca Nardi - Tomas Machac Predictions

Users Predictions: Tomas Machac will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.89% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tomas Machac will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Nardi is ranked ATP: 83. Machac is ranked ATP: 22.

Recent performances by Nardi have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Nardi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Machac could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Nardi won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Tomas Machac - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 63.68%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Nardi
ATP Cincinnati
13.08.25	Luca Nardi - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
12.08.25	Jakub Mensik - Luca Nardi	Mensik J. retired ✺
10.08.25	Luca Nardi - Denis Shapovalov	2:1 ✺
08.08.25	Luca Nardi - Thiago Augustin Tirante	2:0 ✺
06.08.25	Luca Nardi - Alexander Blockx	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 L?WWL
- Tomas Machac
ATP Cincinnati
09.08.25	Tomas Machac - Adrian Mannarino	0:2 ✺
ATP Toronto
29.07.25	Reilly Opelka - Tomas Machac	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
03.07.25	August Holmgren - Tomas Machac	3:2 ✺
01.07.25	Damir Dzumhur - Tomas Machac	0:3 ✺
ATP Halle
20.06.25	Alexander Bublik - Tomas Machac	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
06.10.23	Tomas Machac - Luca Nardi	2:0
01.11.22	Luca Nardi - Tomas Machac	2:0
18.11.20	Luca Nardi - Tomas Machac	0:2

Luca Nardi - Tomas Machac