Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 August 2025, Wednesday


	Luca Nardi		Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

	1	2
	11	1.05	Watch
	10.5	1.04	Watch
	8.5	1.05	Watch
	11.51	1.06
	17.35	1.01	Watch
			Watch
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	11.77 ↓ (13)	1.04 (1.04)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Nardi
8.1%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
91.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

7.4%

92.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Nardi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Luca Nardi - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Nardi will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +6 Games - Nardi (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nardi (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Nardi is ranked ATP: 98. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 2.

Nardi has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Alcaraz Garfia is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Alcaraz Garfia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nardi won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Nardi
ATP Cincinnati
12.08.25	Jakub Mensik - Luca Nardi	Mensik J. retired ✺
10.08.25	Luca Nardi - Denis Shapovalov	2:1 ✺
08.08.25	Luca Nardi - Thiago Augustin Tirante	2:0 ✺
06.08.25	Luca Nardi - Alexander Blockx	0:2 ✺
05.08.25	Luca Nardi - Aidan Mayo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 ?WWLW
- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Cincinnati
12.08.25	Hamad Medjedovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
10.08.25	Damir Dzumhur - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
13.07.25	Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	3:1 ✺
11.07.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:3 ✺
08.07.25	Cameron Norrie - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Doha
19.02.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Luca Nardi	2:1

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