Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 5 October 2026, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Romania	Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 3, Prima Sport PPV 2
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis


	Alex De Minaur		Hubert Hurkacz

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.67	2.18
	1.7	2.11	Watch
	1.72	2.18	Watch
	1.71	2.15
	1.71	2.21	Watch
	1.7	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.67)	2.15 ↓ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex De Minaur
55.7%

Hubert Hurkacz
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex De Minaur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Hubert Hurkacz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hubert Hurkacz than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	0%	64.3%

Alex De Minaur - Hubert Hurkacz Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. De Minaur will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Hurkacz will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hurkacz: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 21.5 Games - over (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hubert Hurkacz will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

De Minaur is ranked ATP: 10., and Hurkacz is ranked ATP: 41..

Both players enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

De Minaur could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, De Minaur has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 6:4 (averaging 1.5:1 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Alex De Minaur - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 56.74%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex De Minaur
ATP Beijing
04.10.26	Alex De Minaur - Andrey Rublev	2:1 ✺
02.10.26	Alex De Minaur - Quentin Halys	2:1 ✺
30.09.26	Alex De Minaur - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
27.09.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex De Minaur	Canceled ✺
26.09.26	Alexander Zverev - Alex De Minaur	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 WWW?W
- Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Beijing
04.10.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Karen Khachanov	2:0 ✺
02.10.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Arthur Gea	2:1 ✺
01.10.26	Learner Tien - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
29.09.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
28.09.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Denis Shapovalov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP United Cup
09.01.26	Alex De Minaur - Hubert Hurkacz	2:1
ATP Indian Wells
10.03.25	Hubert Hurkacz - Alex De Minaur	0:2
ATP Madrid
07.05.19	Alex De Minaur - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2
ATP Atlanta
23.07.18	Alex De Minaur - Hubert Hurkacz	2:1

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