Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday


	Alex De Minaur		Lorenzo Sonego

	1	2
	1.17	5	Watch
	1.22	4.1	Watch
	1.14	5.7
	1.18	5.34
	1.21	4.31	Watch
	1.22	4.2	Watch
	1.22	4.32	Watch
	1.12	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.19 ↓ (1.36)	4.85 ↑ (3.19)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex De Minaur
80.4%

Lorenzo Sonego
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.1%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.4%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alex De Minaur's performance.

Lorenzo Sonego has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lorenzo Sonego might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alex De Minaur that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lorenzo Sonego could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	0%	21.4%

Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Sonego Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sonego (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Alex De Minaur will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

De Minaur is ranked ATP: 7. Sonego is ranked ATP: 43.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

De Minaur could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match De Minaur is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches De Minaur won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:1 (average 2:0.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Alex De Minaur - the odds 1.36 are the expected chance of winning is 70.08%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex De Minaur
ATP Barcelona
18.04.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
17.04.25	Jacob Fearnley - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
15.04.25	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
12.04.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alex De Minaur	2:1 ✺
11.04.25	Grigor Dimitrov - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWWLW
- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Madrid
24.04.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Miomir Kecmanovic	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Pedro Martinez Portero	1:2 ✺
ATP Marrakech
03.04.25	Vit Kopriva - Lorenzo Sonego	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
22.03.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0 ✺
20.03.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Eastbourne
22.06.22	Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0
26.06.21	Lorenzo Sonego - Alex De Minaur	1:2
ATP Paris
04.11.20	Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0

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