Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Finals - Turin, hard

Date: 11 November 2025, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu 1
France	Eurosport 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
Poland	Polsat Sport 2, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Sweden	TV4 Tennis
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Lorenzo Musetti		Alex De Minaur

	1	2
	3.2	1.36	Watch
	3.22	1.35
	3.4	1.36
	2.34	1.59	Watch
			Watch
	3.25	1.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.34)	1.41 ↓ (1.59)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
31.4%

Alex De Minaur
68.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

59.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

58.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorenzo Musetti's form might have worsened.

Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alex De Minaur's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorenzo Musetti, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alex De Minaur, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Lorenzo Musetti - Alex De Minaur Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Musetti (votes: 3 - 33.3%). De Minaur (votes: 6 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Musetti (1.79) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +4.5 Games - Musetti (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Alex De Minaur will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Musetti (votes: 8 - 57.1%). De Minaur (votes: 6 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Musetti is ranked ATP: 9. De Minaur is ranked ATP: 7.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

De Minaur may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, De Minaur is a strong favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Musetti won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.8:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Alex De Minaur - the odds 1.59 are the expected chance of winning is 59.54%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP World Tour Finals
10.11.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
ATP Athens
08.11.25	Novak Djokovic - Lorenzo Musetti	2:1 ✺
07.11.25	Sebastian Korda - Lorenzo Musetti	1:2 ✺
06.11.25	Alexandre Muller - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
05.11.25	Stanislas Wawrinka - Lorenzo Musetti	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLWWW
- Alex De Minaur
ATP World Tour Finals
11.11.25	Novak Djokovic - Alex De Minaur	N/A
09.11.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
ATP Paris
31.10.25	Alexander Bublik - Alex De Minaur	2:1 ✺
30.10.25	Karen Khachanov - Alex De Minaur	0:2 ✺
29.10.25	Gabriel Diallo - Alex De Minaur	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 ?LLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Madrid
30.04.25	Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2
ATP Monte Carlo
12.04.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alex De Minaur	2:1
ATP London
18.06.24	Lorenzo Musetti - Alex De Minaur	2:1
ATP Australian Open
18.01.22	Lorenzo Musetti - Alex De Minaur	1:3

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