Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Houston, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 April 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV6
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 2
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis


	Alex Michelsen		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
	2.5	1.47	Watch
	2.63	1.49	Watch
			Watch
	2.64	1.49	Watch
	2.5	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.1)	1.48 ↓ (1.73)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Michelsen
36.5%

Francis Tiafoe
63.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

54.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

55.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alex Michelsen's form might have worsened.

Francis Tiafoe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Francis Tiafoe's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alex Michelsen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Francis Tiafoe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Alex Michelsen - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Michelsen will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Tiafoe will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tiafoe: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Michelsen (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tiafoe (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Michelsen (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Michelsen (votes: 2 - 50%). Tiafoe (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Michelsen is ranked ATP: 34. Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 17.

Michelsen is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Tiafoe is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Tiafoe could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Michelsen won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Michelsen
ATP Houston
03.04.25	Alex Michelsen - Adrian Mannarino	2:1 ✺
31.03.25	Alex Michelsen - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.25	Alex Michelsen - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
09.03.25	Alex Michelsen - Daniil Medvedev	Michelsen A. retired ✺
07.03.25	Alex Michelsen - Colton Smith	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWL?W
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Houston
03.04.25	Adam Walton - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
24.03.25	Arthur Fils - Francis Tiafoe	2:1 ✺
22.03.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
09.03.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Francis Tiafoe	2:0 ✺
07.03.25	Damir Dzumhur - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Dallas
08.02.24	Francis Tiafoe - Alex Michelsen	2:0

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