Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Germany	Laola1


	Alex Michelsen		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	1.53	2.50	Watch
	1.50	2.54
	1.54	2.48
	1.54	2.68
	1.57	2.46	Watch
	1.51	2.65
	1.54	2.55	Watch
	1.52	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.68)	2.55 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 38.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Michelsen
62.5%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
37.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

44.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Michelsen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alex Michelsen's performance.

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Daniel Merida Aguilar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alex Michelsen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Daniel Merida Aguilar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	0%	64.3%

Alex Michelsen - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Michelsen will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 9 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Merida Aguilar: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 1st Set - Merida Aguilar (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 34.5 Games - over (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Daniel Merida Aguilar will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Michelsen (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Merida Aguilar (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Michelsen is ranked ATP: 46. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 39.

Michelsen has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Merida Aguilar is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Michelsen might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Michelsen won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Alex Michelsen - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 55.92%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 44.08%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Michelsen
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Brandon Nakashima - Alex Michelsen	0:3 ✺
31.08.26	Alex Michelsen - Federico Cina	3:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
14.08.26	Alex Michelsen - Jesper De Jong	2:0 ✺
ATP Montreal
07.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Alex Michelsen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWLWL
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Andrey Rublev	3:1 ✺
30.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Marton Fucsovics	3:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
18.08.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
16.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Zizou Bergs	2:0 ✺
14.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Marin Cilic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Montreal
07.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Alex Michelsen	2:1
ATP Indian Wells
05.03.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Alex Michelsen	0:2

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