Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 August 2026, Friday


	Daniel Merida Aguilar		Alex Michelsen

	1	2
	3.40	1.33	Watch
	3.20	1.34	Watch
	3.20	1.35	Watch
	3.50	1.36
	3.34	1.33	Watch
	3.50	1.32	Watch
	3.20	1.36	Watch
	3.30	1.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↑ (2.71)	1.34 ↓ (1.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar
28.6%

Alex Michelsen
71.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

65.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

64.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Daniel Merida Aguilar's form might have worsened.

Alex Michelsen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alex Michelsen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Daniel Merida Aguilar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alex Michelsen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Daniel Merida Aguilar - Alex Michelsen Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Michelsen (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 63. Michelsen is ranked ATP: 42.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Merida Aguilar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Michelsen is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Michelsen will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Merida Aguilar won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Alex Michelsen - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 65.14%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Ugo Humbert - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
04.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Liam Draxl	2:1 ✺
ATP Estoril
21.07.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Kyrian Jacquet	1:2 ✺
21.07.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Taro Daniel	Canceled ✺
ATP Umag
18.07.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Damir Dzumhur	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWL?W
- Alex Michelsen
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Alex Michelsen - Francisco Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
03.08.26	Alex Michelsen - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:1 ✺
ATP Washington
31.07.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Alex Michelsen	2:1 ✺
29.07.26	Alex Michelsen - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
28.07.26	Alex Michelsen - Mackenzie McDonald	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Indian Wells
05.03.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Alex Michelsen	0:2

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