Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 2 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Brandon Nakashima		Alex Michelsen

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.40	2.90
	1.44	2.72
	1.45	2.99
	1.45	2.77	Watch
	1.42	2.8
	1.43	2.92	Watch
	1.45	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.63)	2.83 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 40.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brandon Nakashima
66.3%

Alex Michelsen
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brandon Nakashima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Brandon Nakashima's performance.

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alex Michelsen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brandon Nakashima that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alex Michelsen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Brandon Nakashima - Alex Michelsen Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nakashima (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Brandon Nakashima will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Nakashima is ranked ATP: 17. Michelsen is ranked ATP: 46.

Nakashima is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Michelsen's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Nakashima may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Nakashima will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Brandon Nakashima - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 58%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Alex Michelsen - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 42%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brandon Nakashima
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Sebastian Baez	3:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
22.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
21.08.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
19.08.26	Nuno Borges - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
18.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Daniil Medvedev	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WLWWW
- Alex Michelsen
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Alex Michelsen - Federico Cina	3:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
14.08.26	Alex Michelsen - Jesper De Jong	2:0 ✺
ATP Montreal
07.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Alex Michelsen	2:1 ✺
05.08.26	Alex Michelsen - Francisco Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLWLW

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