Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Oeiras 4 (Portugal), clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 15 May 2024, Wednesday

Referee: Leal M. (Por)


	Alex Michelsen		Dennis Novak

	1	2
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.15	1.62
	2.15	1.65	Watch
	2.23	1.68
	2.23	1.68
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.31	1.58	Watch
	2.2	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.32)	1.63 ↑ (1.56)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Michelsen
42.5%

Dennis Novak
57.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

59.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

61.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Michelsen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Dennis Novak has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dennis Novak than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Alex Michelsen - Dennis Novak Predictions

Users Predictions: Dennis Novak will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Michelsen is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Novak is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Michelsen could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Novak will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Michelsen
ATP Challenger
14.05.24	Alex Michelsen - Henrique Rocha	2:1 ✺
ATP Roma
08.05.24	Pavel Kotov - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.05.24	Alex Michelsen - Lorenzo Sonego	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.24	Alex Michelsen - Joao Fonseca	1:2 ✺
ATP Munich
18.04.24	Alex Michelsen - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLLLL
- Dennis Novak
ATP Challenger
14.05.24	Dennis Novak - Dan Added	Novak D. retired ✺
07.05.24	Lucas Pouille - Dennis Novak	2:1 ✺
26.04.24	Dennis Novak - Henri Squire	0:2 ✺
24.04.24	Dennis Novak - Gauthier Onclin	2:0 ✺
22.04.24	Lukas Neumayer - Dennis Novak	Neumayer L. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 ?LLW?

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