Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 25 April 2024, Thursday

Referee: Rodriguez P. (Esp)


	Alex Michelsen		Joao Fonseca

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.3	1.6
	2.5	1.52	Watch
	2.63	1.54
	2.35	1.65
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.35	1.61	Watch
	2.38	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.02)	1.59 ↓ (1.7)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Michelsen
40%

Joao Fonseca
60%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

54.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

54.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alex Michelsen's form might have worsened.

Joao Fonseca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Joao Fonseca's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alex Michelsen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Joao Fonseca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.6%	0%	78.4%

Alex Michelsen - Joao Fonseca Predictions

Users Predictions: Joao Fonseca will win (29 of 37 users predict this - 78.38%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.12% – 91.64%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Michelsen is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Fonseca is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Michelsen could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Fonseca will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Michelsen
ATP Munich
18.04.24	Alex Michelsen - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
15.04.24	Max Hans Rehberg - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.24	Corentin Moutet - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
ATP Houston
02.04.24	Alex Michelsen - Max Purcell	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.24	Tallon Griekspoor - Alex Michelsen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LWLLL
- Joao Fonseca
ATP Bucharest
19.04.24	Joao Fonseca - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
18.04.24	Joao Fonseca - Radu Albot	2:0 ✺
16.04.24	Lorenzo Sonego - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.04.24	Leandro Riedi - Joao Fonseca	2:0 ✺
11.04.24	Joao Fonseca - Harold Mayot	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWWLW

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