Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Munich (Germany), clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 18 April 2024, Thursday

Referee: Finke T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Croatia	SportKlub
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Prima Sport 3
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Alex Michelsen		Christian Garin

	1	2
	3.4	1.33	Watch
	3.1	1.36
	3.2	1.35	Watch
	3.36	1.37
	3.36	1.37
	3.1	1.36	Watch
	3.13	1.37	Watch
	3	1.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.21 ↑ (2.65)	1.36 ↓ (1.49)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Michelsen
29.8%

Christian Garin
70.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

64%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

64.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Michelsen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alex Michelsen's form might have worsened.

Christian Garin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Christian Garin's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Michelsen than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alex Michelsen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Christian Garin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Alex Michelsen - Christian Garin Predictions

Users Predictions: Christian Garin will win (30 of 36 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.15% – 95.51%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Recent matches Michelsen is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Garin is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Michelsen could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Garin is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Garin to win the game is with odds 1.38.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Michelsen
ATP Munich
15.04.24	Max Hans Rehberg - Alex Michelsen	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.24	Corentin Moutet - Alex Michelsen	2:0 ✺
ATP Houston
02.04.24	Alex Michelsen - Max Purcell	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.24	Tallon Griekspoor - Alex Michelsen	2:1 ✺
20.03.24	Alex Michelsen - Lukas Klein	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLLLW
- Christian Garin
ATP Munich
16.04.24	Christian Garin - Dominik Koepfer	2:0 ✺
ATP Estoril
06.04.24	Christian Garin - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2 ✺
05.04.24	Christian Garin - Nuno Borges	2:0 ✺
04.04.24	Arthur Fils - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
03.04.24	Jurij Rodionov - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WLWWW

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