Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Almaty, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Almaty 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	01:40	beIN Sports 1
Denmark	16:40	TV2 Play
Finland	17:40	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
Netherlands	16:40	Ziggo Sport 5
Romania	17:40	Prima Sport PPV 1
Sweden	16:40	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1, TV4 Tennis
Turkey	17:40	S Sport
United Kingdom	15:40	Sky Sports Tennis


	Alexander Bublik		Karen Khachanov

	1	2
	1.80	2.00	Watch
	1.75	2.05
	1.79	2.02	Watch
	1.81	2.04	Watch
	1.77	2.03
	1.83	2.07	Watch
	1.75	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.72)	2.02 ↓ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 25.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Bublik
53.1%

Karen Khachanov
46.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.7%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

48.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Bublik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Karen Khachanov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karen Khachanov than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	0%	30.8%

Alexander Bublik - Karen Khachanov Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Bublik will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Khachanov will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bublik: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bublik (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Bublik is ranked ATP: 19., and Khachanov is ranked ATP: 25..

Bublik has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Khachanov is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Khachanov may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Bublik has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:3 (averaging 1:1.5 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Alexander Bublik - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 54.66%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Bublik
ATP Almaty
22.10.26	Alexander Bublik - Fabian Marozsan	Bublik A. Walkover ✺
ATP Shanghai
13.10.26	Alexander Zverev - Alexander Bublik	2:1 ✺
11.10.26	Alexander Bublik - Brandon Nakashima	2:1 ✺
09.10.26	Alexander Bublik - Tomas Machac	2:0 ✺
ATP Beijing
01.10.26	Alexander Bublik - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 ?LWWL
- Karen Khachanov
ATP Almaty
22.10.26	Tomas Machac - Karen Khachanov	1:2 ✺
20.10.26	Rei Sakamoto - Karen Khachanov	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
13.10.26	Alex De Minaur - Karen Khachanov	2:0 ✺
11.10.26	Karen Khachanov - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
09.10.26	Karen Khachanov - Arthur Fery	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Halle
21.06.25	Alexander Bublik - Karen Khachanov	2:1
ATP Cincinnati
23.08.20	Karen Khachanov - Alexander Bublik	2:0

Alexander Bublik - Karen Khachanov