Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Shanghai 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Alexander Bublik		Brandon Nakashima

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	1.91	1.85
	2.2	1.65
	2.06	1.76	Watch
	2.12	1.76
	2.38	1.59	Watch
	2.2	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.17)	1.7 ↑ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Bublik
44.2%

Brandon Nakashima
55.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.5%

56.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

53.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Brandon Nakashima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	0%	77.8%

Alexander Bublik - Brandon Nakashima Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Bublik will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Nakashima will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nakashima: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nakashima (votes: 1 - 100%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Brandon Nakashima (1.83) (votes: 92%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bublik is ranked ATP: 22., and Nakashima is ranked ATP: 18..

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Brandon Nakashima - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 56.51%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Bublik
ATP Shanghai
09.10.26	Alexander Bublik - Tomas Machac	2:0 ✺
ATP Beijing
01.10.26	Alexander Bublik - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
25.09.26	Rafael Jodar - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
04.09.26	Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul	2:3 ✺
02.09.26	Alexander Bublik - Adrian Mannarino	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLLW
- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Shanghai
09.10.26	Matteo Berrettini - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
30.09.26	Brandon Nakashima - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
25.09.26	Jakub Mensik - Brandon Nakashima	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Brandon Nakashima - Alex Michelsen	0:3 ✺
31.08.26	Brandon Nakashima - Sebastian Baez	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWLW

Alexander Bublik - Brandon Nakashima