Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami (USA), hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 19 March 2025, Wednesday


	Alexander Bublik		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	1.5	2.63	Watch
	1.48	2.6	Watch
	1.48	2.65	Watch
	1.45	2.71
	1.5	2.6	Watch
	1.48	2.68	Watch
	1.48	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.51)	2.65 ↑ (2.59)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Bublik
64.1%

Sebastian Baez
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.2%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.6%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.4%	0%	27.6%

Alexander Bublik - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Bublik will win (votes: 21 - 72.4%). Baez will win (votes: 8 - 27.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bublik: 56.1% – 88.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Bublik is ranked ATP: 80. Baez is ranked ATP: 36.

Bublik is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Baez is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Baez could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Bublik will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Bublik
ATP Challenger
16.03.25	Alexander Bublik - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
15.03.25	Nuno Borges - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
14.03.25	Corentin Moutet - Alexander Bublik	1:2 ✺
13.03.25	Rinky Hijikata - Alexander Bublik	1:2 ✺
12.03.25	Alexander Bublik - Aleksandar Vukic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LWWWW
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Indian Wells
06.03.25	Matteo Gigante - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Santiago
02.03.25	Laslo Djere - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
01.03.25	Sebastian Baez - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:1 ✺
28.02.25	Damir Dzumhur - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
27.02.25	Francisco Comesana - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLWWW

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