Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: Louis Armstrong Stadium (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Alexander Bublik		Tommy Paul

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.40	1.55
	2.4	1.55
	2.66	1.55
	2.53	1.55	Watch
	2.6	1.53
	2.39	1.59	Watch
	2.4	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.74)	1.55 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 40.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Alexander Bublik
38.4%

Tommy Paul
61.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

65.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

65.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Bublik will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Paul will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bublik: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bublik (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Paul (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 35.5 Games - over (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

#ad

Preview

Bublik is ranked ATP: 16. Paul is ranked ATP: 21.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bublik won 1.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

Paul might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Paul will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Bublik won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 1.1:1.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Tommy Paul - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 65.55%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Bublik
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Alexander Bublik - Adrian Mannarino	3:0 ✺
30.08.26	Alexander Bublik - Jeffrey John Wolf	3:1 ✺
ATP Kitzbuhel
25.07.26	Alexander Bublik - Quentin Halys	0:2 ✺
24.07.26	Alexander Bublik - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:0 ✺
23.07.26	Alexander Bublik - Alex Molcan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWLWW
- Tommy Paul
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Dino Prizmic - Tommy Paul	1:3 ✺
30.08.26	Chak Lam Coleman Wong - Tommy Paul	1:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
20.08.26	Tommy Paul - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
19.08.26	Alexander Zverev - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
17.08.26	Tommy Paul - Daniel Vallejo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
30.08.25	Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul	3:2
ATP Miami
21.03.25	Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul	1:2
ATP Wimbledon
05.07.24	Tommy Paul - Alexander Bublik	3:0
ATP Rotterdam
04.03.21	Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul	1:2
ATP Hamburg
20.09.20	Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul	0:2
ATP London
16.06.19	Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul	2:0
ATP Challenger
31.12.18	Tommy Paul - Alexander Bublik	2:1

Upcoming Matches