Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lisbon, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday


	Alexander Ritschard		Joel Schwaerzler

	1	2
	2	1.73	Watch
			Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.06	1.78
			Watch
	2.02	1.73	Watch
	2.09	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 (2.03)	1.73 ↑ (1.66)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Ritschard
45.9%

Joel Schwaerzler
54.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

55%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

56.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Ritschard has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Joel Schwaerzler has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Ritschard than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joel Schwaerzler than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Alexander Ritschard - Joel Schwaerzler Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ritschard will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Schwaerzler will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ritschard is ranked ATP: 330. Schwaerzler is ranked ATP: 248.

Ritschard is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Schwaerzler's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ritschard may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Ritschard
ATP Challenger
22.09.25	Max Houkes - Alexander Ritschard	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Stefan Latinovic - Alexander Ritschard	0:2 ✺
10.09.25	Alexander Ritschard - Gianluca Cadenasso	1:2 ✺
09.09.25	Alexander Ritschard - Tom Gentzsch	Gentzsch T. retired ✺
26.08.25	Alexander Ritschard - Thiago Monteiro	Ritschard A. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWL??
- Joel Schwaerzler
ATP Challenger
18.09.25	Joel Schwaerzler - Vit Kopriva	0:2 ✺
17.09.25	Cedrik-Marcel Stebe - Joel Schwaerzler	0:2 ✺
06.09.25	Joel Schwaerzler - Marco Trungelliti	0:2 ✺
05.09.25	Joel Schwaerzler - Sumit Nagal	2:1 ✺
03.09.25	Jan Choinski - Joel Schwaerzler	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWLWW

Alexander Ritschard - Joel Schwaerzler: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide