Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Gwangju, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday


	Alibek Kachmazov		Rio Noguchi

	1	2
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.53	2.35	Watch
	1.53	2.34	Watch
	1.57	2.44
	1.55	2.4	Watch
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.53	2.4	Watch
	1.53	2.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.72)	2.36 ↑ (2.02)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alibek Kachmazov
60.5%

Rio Noguchi
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

46%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

45.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alibek Kachmazov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alibek Kachmazov's performance.

Rio Noguchi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rio Noguchi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alibek Kachmazov than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alibek Kachmazov that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Noguchi than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rio Noguchi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alibek Kachmazov - Rio Noguchi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Kachmazov is ranked ATP: 185. Noguchi is ranked ATP: 254.

Kachmazov is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Noguchi is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Kachmazov could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Rio Noguchi - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 45.98%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alibek Kachmazov
ATP Challenger
23.04.25	Terence Atmane - Alibek Kachmazov	Atmane T. retired ✺
16.04.25	Alibek Kachmazov - Ilia Simakin	1:2 ✺
12.03.25	Cyril Vandermeersch - Alibek Kachmazov	2:0 ✺
08.03.25	Borna Coric - Alibek Kachmazov	2:1 ✺
07.03.25	Liam Draxl - Alibek Kachmazov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 ?LLLW
- Rio Noguchi
ATP Challenger
22.04.25	Rio Noguchi - Sho Shimabukuro	2:0 ✺
21.04.25	Rio Noguchi - Kasidit Samrej	2:0 ✺
20.04.25	Rio Noguchi - Mats Rosenkranz	2:0 ✺
14.04.25	Adam Walton - Rio Noguchi	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
20.03.25	Renta Tokuda - Rio Noguchi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWLL

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