Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Santiago, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 February 2026, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5
Portugal	Sport TV7


	Andrea Pellegrino		Alex Barrena

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.65	2.2
	1.79	1.99	Watch
	1.82	1.94	Watch
	1.8	2
	1.82	1.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.67)	2.02 ↓ (2.19)

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrea Pellegrino
53.1%

Alex Barrena
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.8%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

47.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrea Pellegrino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Alex Barrena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrea Pellegrino than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Barrena than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Andrea Pellegrino - Alex Barrena Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Pellegrino will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Barrena will win (votes: 3 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Pellegrino (votes: 2 - 50%). Barrena (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Pellegrino is ranked ATP: 140. Barrena is ranked ATP: 180.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Barrena may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrea Pellegrino
ATP Santiago
22.02.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Daniel Elahi Galan	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Nicolas Villalon	2:0 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
14.02.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
09.02.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Thiago Seyboth Wild	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWLLW
- Alex Barrena
ATP Santiago
22.02.26	Vilius Gaubas - Alex Barrena	0:2 ✺
21.02.26	Daniel Antonio Nunez - Alex Barrena	0:2 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
09.02.26	Alex Barrena - Vit Kopriva	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
02.02.26	Alex Barrena - Juan Bautista Torres	0:2 ✺
29.01.26	Lautaro Midon - Alex Barrena	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWLLL

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