Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Murcia, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday


	Andrea Pellegrino		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.35	1.53	Watch
	2.44	1.61
	2.39	1.51	Watch
	2.38	1.53
	2.39	1.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (2.7)	1.54 ↑ (1.4)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrea Pellegrino
39.2%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
60.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

65.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

65%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrea Pellegrino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Andrea Pellegrino's performance.

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pablo Carreno-Busta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrea Pellegrino than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Andrea Pellegrino - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Carreno Busta (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Pablo Carreno-Busta will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Pellegrino is ranked ATP: 128. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 117.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Carreno Busta might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Carreno Busta will win today's game, with odds of 1.46.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrea Pellegrino
ATP Challenger
19.03.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Justin Engel	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Pol Martin Tiffon	2:0 ✺
ATP Santiago
27.02.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
25.02.26	Francisco Comesana - Andrea Pellegrino	1:2 ✺
23.02.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Alex Barrena	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWLWW
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Challenger
19.03.26	Felix Gill - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
17.03.26	Carlos Sanchez Jover - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
25.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Jiri Lehecka	0:2 ✺
24.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Denis Shapovalov	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Luca Nardi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWLWW

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