Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 20 April 2026, Monday


	Arthur Gea		Vilius Gaubas

	1	2
			Watch
	2	1.7	Watch
	2.15	1.79
	2.08	1.72	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.04	1.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.59)	1.74 ↓ (2.27)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arthur Gea
45.9%

Vilius Gaubas
54.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arthur Gea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arthur Gea's form might have worsened.

Vilius Gaubas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vilius Gaubas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Gea than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arthur Gea, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vilius Gaubas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Arthur Gea - Vilius Gaubas Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Gea will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Gaubas will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Gea is ranked ATP: 138. Gaubas is ranked ATP: 122.

Gea has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gaubas's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Gea won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Vilius Gaubas - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 41.19%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arthur Gea
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Arthur Gea - Patrick Kypson	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
06.04.26	Sergi Perez Contri - Arthur Gea	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Stefano Travaglia - Arthur Gea	Gea A. retired ✺
21.03.26	Arthur Gea - Kyrian Jacquet	2:1 ✺
20.03.26	Lukas Neumayer - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LL?WW
- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Hamad Medjedovic - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
06.04.26	Vilius Gaubas - Stefano Travaglia	0:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
31.03.26	Sebastian Baez - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
26.03.26	Max Houkes - Vilius Gaubas	2:1 ✺
24.03.26	Abedallah Shelbayh - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
03.04.25	Vilius Gaubas - Arthur Gea	2:0

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