Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Zadar, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday


	Lukas Neumayer		Arthur Gea

	1	2
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.55	1.45	Watch
	2.79	1.49
	2.61	1.43	Watch
	2.5	1.5
	2.5	1.47	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (2.96)	1.46 ↑ (1.35)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lukas Neumayer
36%

Arthur Gea
64%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

68.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

64.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lukas Neumayer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Arthur Gea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukas Neumayer than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Gea than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Lukas Neumayer - Arthur Gea Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Neumayer will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Gea will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gea: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Neumayer (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Neumayer is ranked ATP: 227. Gea is ranked ATP: 144.

Neumayer is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Gea has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Neumayer may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Gea will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lukas Neumayer
ATP Challenger
19.03.26	Lukas Neumayer - Nerman Fatic	2:1 ✺
18.03.26	Lukas Neumayer - Sumit Nagal	2:1 ✺
06.03.26	Lukas Neumayer - Harry Wendelken	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	Lukas Neumayer - Alex Rybakov	2:0 ✺
02.03.26	Lukas Neumayer - Jacopo Vasami	Vasami J. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWLW?
- Arthur Gea
ATP Challenger
19.03.26	Daniel Michalski - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
18.03.26	Dimitar Kuzmanov - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Marco Cecchinato - Arthur Gea	2:0 ✺
13.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
12.03.26	Sean Cuenin - Arthur Gea	Cuenin S. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLW?

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