Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: French Open, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 28 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Stade Roland-Garros (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Arthur Rinderknech		Matteo Berrettini

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
			Watch
	1.84	1.98
	1.91	2.01
	1.96	1.80	Watch
	1.85	1.95
	1.88	2.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.09)	1.96 ↑ (1.77)

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arthur Rinderknech
51.1%

Matteo Berrettini
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

54.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arthur Rinderknech has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Arthur Rinderknech's performance.

Matteo Berrettini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Matteo Berrettini might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Rinderknech than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arthur Rinderknech that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matteo Berrettini could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.1%	0%	34.9%

Arthur Rinderknech - Matteo Berrettini Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Rinderknech will win (votes: 28 - 65.1%). Berrettini will win (votes: 15 - 34.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rinderknech: 50.9% – 79.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Berrettini (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Rinderknech is ranked ATP: 25. Berrettini is ranked ATP: 105.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Berrettini may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Rinderknech won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Arthur Rinderknech - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 45.93%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Matteo Berrettini - the odds 1.77 are the expected chance of winning is 54.07%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arthur Rinderknech
ATP Roland Garros
25.05.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Jurij Rodionov	3:0 ✺
ATP Geneva
21.05.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Alexander Bublik	1:2 ✺
20.05.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Laslo Djere	2:1 ✺
18.05.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Thiago Augustin Tirante	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.05.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLWWL
- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Roland Garros
25.05.26	Marton Fucsovics - Matteo Berrettini	1:3 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.05.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
13.05.26	Matteo Berrettini - Taro Daniel	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
07.05.26	Alexei Popyrin - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.05.26	Matteo Berrettini - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
31.08.23	Matteo Berrettini - Arthur Rinderknech	Berrettini M. retired

Arthur Rinderknech - Matteo Berrettini: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide