Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Geneva, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday


	Arthur Rinderknech		Alexander Bublik

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
			Watch
	2.35	1.52	Watch
	2.62	1.57
	2.54	1.52	Watch
	2.5	1.53
	2.52	1.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.33)	1.54 ↓ (1.56)

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arthur Rinderknech
38%

Alexander Bublik
62%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

59.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

56.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arthur Rinderknech has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Rinderknech than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arthur Rinderknech, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alexander Bublik, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Arthur Rinderknech - Alexander Bublik Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rinderknech (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 Games - Bublik (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Rinderknech (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Alexander Bublik will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Rinderknech (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Bublik (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Rinderknech is ranked ATP: 24. Bublik is ranked ATP: 10.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Bublik may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Bublik will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Rinderknech won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Arthur Rinderknech - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 40.1%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arthur Rinderknech
ATP Geneva
20.05.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Laslo Djere	2:1 ✺
18.05.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Thiago Augustin Tirante	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.05.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
ATP Roma
08.05.26	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Arthur Rinderknech	Canceled
ATP Madrid
26.04.26	Vit Kopriva - Arthur Rinderknech	Rinderknech A. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWL??
- Alexander Bublik
ATP Geneva
20.05.26	Edas Butvilas - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
ATP Roma
10.05.26	Learner Tien - Alexander Bublik	2:1 ✺
08.05.26	Sebastian Baez - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Alexander Bublik - Stefanos Tsitsipas	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
14.04.26	Alex Molcan - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
24.05.22	Arthur Rinderknech - Alexander Bublik	0:3
ATP Doha
16.02.22	Arthur Rinderknech - Alexander Bublik	2:1
ATP Stockholm
09.11.21	Alexander Bublik - Arthur Rinderknech	Bublik A. retired

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