Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Valencia, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 14 May 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Slovakia	Arena sport 2


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Matteo Berrettini

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.23	1.58	Watch
	2.34	1.65
	2.25	1.62	Watch
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.23	1.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.13)	1.6 ↓ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
41.6%

Matteo Berrettini
58.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

56.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

53.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Matteo Berrettini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Matteo Berrettini Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ugo Carabelli (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 61. Berrettini is ranked ATP: 100.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Ugo Carabelli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Matteo Berrettini - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 56.05%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Roma
06.05.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Alexander Shevchenko	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
23.04.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Gael Monfils	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
15.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
14.04.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Karen Khachanov	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLWLW
- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Challenger
13.05.26	Matteo Berrettini - Taro Daniel	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
07.05.26	Alexei Popyrin - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.05.26	Matteo Berrettini - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2 ✺
30.04.26	Mariano Navone - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
28.04.26	Patrick Kypson - Matteo Berrettini	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLLWW

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