Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cagliari, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday


	Matteo Berrettini		Hubert Hurkacz

	1	2
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.9	1.75	Watch
	2.07	1.86
	1.93	1.83	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	1.93	1.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.85)	1.79 ↓ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Berrettini
47.8%

Hubert Hurkacz
52.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

45.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Berrettini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Hubert Hurkacz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Berrettini than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matteo Berrettini, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hubert Hurkacz than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hubert Hurkacz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	0%	35.7%

Matteo Berrettini - Hubert Hurkacz Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Berrettini will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Hurkacz will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Berrettini: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Berrettini is ranked ATP: 92. Hurkacz is ranked ATP: 63.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Berrettini may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Berrettini won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.4:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Berrettini
ATP Challenger
30.04.26	Mariano Navone - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
28.04.26	Patrick Kypson - Matteo Berrettini	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
22.04.26	Dino Prizmic - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
22.04.26	Raphael Collignon - Matteo Berrettini	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.26	Matteo Berrettini - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWL?L
- Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Challenger
30.04.26	Emilio Nava - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
28.04.26	Zachary Svajda - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
22.04.26	Jaime Faria - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
13.04.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Alexander Bublik	1:2
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP United Cup
04.01.23	Hubert Hurkacz - Matteo Berrettini	1:2
ATP World Tour Finals
16.11.21	Matteo Berrettini - Hubert Hurkacz	Canceled
ATP Wimbledon
09.07.21	Matteo Berrettini - Hubert Hurkacz	3:1
ATP Miami
20.03.19	Matteo Berrettini - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2
ATP Australian Open
11.01.18	Hubert Hurkacz - Matteo Berrettini	0:2

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