Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 26 January 2026, Monday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Ben Shelton		Casper Ruud

	1	2
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.57	2.56
	1.51	2.64	Watch
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.53	2.54	Watch
	1.55	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.58)	2.53 ↑ (2.38)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ben Shelton
62.3%

Casper Ruud
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.1%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ben Shelton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Casper Ruud has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ben Shelton than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ben Shelton that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casper Ruud than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Casper Ruud could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.8%	0%	21.2%

Ben Shelton - Casper Ruud Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3 Games - Shelton (1.94) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 40.5 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2.5 Sets - Shelton (3.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 39.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ben Shelton will win (41 of 52 users predict this - 78.85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.75% – 89.95%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ben Shelton will win (26 of 30 users predict this - 86.67%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 33 Selected Experts predict this event. Shelton (votes: 29 - 87.9%). Ruud (votes: 4 - 12.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Shelton is ranked ATP: 7. Ruud is ranked ATP: 13.

Shelton is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ruud's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Shelton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Shelton will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Shelton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Ben Shelton - the odds 1.58 are the expected chance of winning is 60.14%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ben Shelton
ATP Australian Open
23.01.26	Ben Shelton - Valentin Vacherot	3:0 ✺
21.01.26	Ben Shelton - Dane Sweeny	3:0 ✺
19.01.26	Ben Shelton - Ugo Humbert	3:0 ✺
ATP Auckland
15.01.26	Ben Shelton - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Ben Shelton - Francisco Comesana	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWLW
- Casper Ruud
ATP Australian Open
24.01.26	Marin Cilic - Casper Ruud	1:3 ✺
22.01.26	Jaume Munar - Casper Ruud	0:3 ✺
19.01.26	Mattia Bellucci - Casper Ruud	0:3 ✺
ATP Auckland
14.01.26	Fabian Marozsan - Casper Ruud	2:0 ✺
ATP United Cup
04.01.26	Jakub Mensik - Casper Ruud	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Acapulco
29.02.24	Casper Ruud - Ben Shelton	2:1
ATP Barcelona
18.04.23	Casper Ruud - Ben Shelton	2:0
ATP Cincinnati
17.08.22	Casper Ruud - Ben Shelton	0:2

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