Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Mexico	ESPN
Moldova	HBO Max
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Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Peru	ESPN
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Ben Shelton		Valentin Vacherot

	1	2
	1.22	4.33	Watch
	1.22	4.3	Watch
	1.25	4.4
	1.23	4.14	Watch
	1.22	4.2
	1.24	4.13	Watch
	1.22	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.44)	4.26 ↑ (2.75)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ben Shelton
77.6%

Valentin Vacherot
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.6%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.2%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ben Shelton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ben Shelton's performance.

Valentin Vacherot has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Valentin Vacherot might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ben Shelton than the current prediction. (-16.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ben Shelton that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valentin Vacherot than the current prediction. (+16.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Valentin Vacherot could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81%	0%	19%

Ben Shelton - Valentin Vacherot Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 Sets - Shelton (1.01) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 38.5 Games - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +5.5 Games - Vacherot (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2.5 Sets - Vacherot (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 37.5 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ben Shelton will win (17 of 21 users predict this - 80.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.15% – 97.75%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ben Shelton will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Shelton (votes: 11 - 84.6%). Vacherot (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Shelton is ranked ATP: 7. Vacherot is ranked ATP: 31.

Shelton is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Vacherot has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Shelton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Shelton is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Shelton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Ben Shelton - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 65.63%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ben Shelton
ATP Australian Open
21.01.26	Ben Shelton - Dane Sweeny	3:0 ✺
19.01.26	Ben Shelton - Ugo Humbert	3:0 ✺
ATP Auckland
15.01.26	Ben Shelton - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Ben Shelton - Francisco Comesana	2:0 ✺
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
06.12.25	Nick Kyrgios - Ben Shelton	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLWW
- Valentin Vacherot
ATP Australian Open
21.01.26	Rinky Hijikata - Valentin Vacherot	1:3 ✺
19.01.26	Martin Damm - Valentin Vacherot	0:3 ✺
ATP Adelaide
15.01.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
14.01.26	Thanasi Kokkinakis - Valentin Vacherot	Vacherot V. walkover ✺
12.01.26	Miomir Kecmanovic - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWL?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
25.10.22	Valentin Vacherot - Ben Shelton	1:2

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