Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Jinan, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 10 October 2025, Friday


	Bernard Tomic		Shintaro Mochizuki

	1	2
	2.2	1.62	Watch
			Watch
	2.15	1.6	Watch
	2.31	1.66
	2.33	1.56	Watch
	2.22	1.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.06)	1.61 ↓ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bernard Tomic
41.8%

Shintaro Mochizuki
58.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

55.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

56.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bernard Tomic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Shintaro Mochizuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bernard Tomic than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Bernard Tomic - Shintaro Mochizuki Predictions

Users Predictions: Shintaro Mochizuki will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Shintaro Mochizuki will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tomic is ranked ATP: 168. Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 102.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Mochizuki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tomic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Bernard Tomic - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 44.47%, but this team recently wins 23% of matches with these odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 55.53%, but this team recently wins 82% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bernard Tomic
ATP Challenger
08.10.25	Bernard Tomic - Billy Harris	2:1 ✺
07.10.25	Dalibor Svrcina - Bernard Tomic	1:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
29.09.25	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Bernard Tomic	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
26.09.25	Bernard Tomic - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
25.09.25	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Bernard Tomic	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWLLW
- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Challenger
09.10.25	Kyrian Jacquet - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
07.10.25	James McCabe - Shintaro Mochizuki	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
29.09.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Yannick Hanfmann	0:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
25.09.25	Casper Ruud - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:1 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
13.09.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Jan-Lennard Struff	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWLL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
25.03.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Bernard Tomic	1:2

Bernard Tomic - Shintaro Mochizuki: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide