Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Doha, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 February 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Doha 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Alexander Bublik

	1	2
	2.75	1.44
	3.3	1.32
	3.35	1.35
	3.52	1.3
	3.3	1.33
	3.35	1.33	Watch
	3.1	1.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↑ (3.14)	1.34 ↓ (1.35)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
29.3%

Alexander Bublik
70.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30%

70%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

68.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Alexander Bublik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Bublik than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Pablo Carreno Busta - Alexander Bublik Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Carreno Busta will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Bublik will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Carreno Busta (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Bublik (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 Games - Bublik (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Carreno Busta (1.85) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Carreno Busta (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Bublik (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 123. Bublik is ranked ATP: 10.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Bublik may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bublik is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Carreno Busta won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Doha
15.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Billy Harris	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Reda Bennani	2:0 ✺
ATP Rotterdam
07.02.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Roberto Carballes Baena	1:2 ✺
ATP Montpellier
05.02.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
03.02.26	Miomir Kecmanovic - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWLLW
- Alexander Bublik
ATP Rotterdam
14.02.26	Alexander Bublik - Felix Aliassime-Auger	0:2 ✺
13.02.26	Jaume Munar - Alexander Bublik	1:2 ✺
12.02.26	Jan-Lennard Struff - Alexander Bublik	1:2 ✺
11.02.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Alexander Bublik	1:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
07.02.26	Alexander Bublik - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
31.08.22	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Alexander Bublik	3:1
ATP Monte Carlo
13.04.22	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Alexander Bublik	Bublik A. retired
ATP Chengdu
29.09.19	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Alexander Bublik	2:1
ATP Moscow
21.10.16	Alexander Bublik - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Paris
31.10.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Mattia Bellucci	✺

Pablo Carreno-Busta - Alexander Bublik