Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Grandstand (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Brandon Nakashima		Jesper De Jong

	1	2
	1.3	3.5	Watch
	1.3	3.4
	1.29	3.43	Watch
	1.31	3.75
	1.29	3.60	Watch
	1.33	3.3
	1.34	3.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.35)	3.51 ↑ (3.43)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brandon Nakashima
72.8%

Jesper De Jong
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.8%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.5%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brandon Nakashima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Jesper De Jong has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brandon Nakashima that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jesper De Jong than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jesper De Jong could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Brandon Nakashima - Jesper De Jong Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Nakashima will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). De Jong will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nakashima: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nakashima (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Nakashima is ranked ATP: 32. De Jong is ranked ATP: 80.

In recent matches, Nakashima has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

De Jong is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Nakashima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Nakashima is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nakashima won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Brandon Nakashima - the odds 1.35 are the expected chance of winning is 71.83%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Cincinnati
13.08.25	Brandon Nakashima - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
10.08.25	Brandon Nakashima - Alexander Blockx	2:1 ✺
ATP Toronto
01.08.25	Brandon Nakashima - Ben Shelton	1:2 ✺
30.07.25	Brandon Nakashima - Ethan Quinn	2:0 ✺
ATP Washington
25.07.25	Alex De Minaur - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWLWL
- Jesper De Jong
ATP US Open
22.08.25	Jesper De Jong - Mitchell Krueger	2:0 ✺
21.08.25	Jesper De Jong - Harold Mayot	2:1 ✺
18.08.25	Jesper De Jong - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.08.25	Jesper De Jong - Dalibor Svrcina	0:2 ✺
14.08.25	Jesper De Jong - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
07.05.24	Brandon Nakashima - Jesper De Jong	2:1

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